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    • #1569

        Hi guys, I will share some tips that I have gained over the years in soccer betting. I learned this analysis skill mainly from china pro full-time gamblers.

        #Introduction: How do bookies earn money?
        Bookies earn money through taking commissions. Take for example, Singaporepools opens soccer match ODD or EVEN [email protected] each. Imagine I bet $1 on odd and you bet $1 on even. If I win, Singaporepool will eat your money and payout $1.83 to me, so $0.17($1 + $1 – $1.83 = $0.17) is absorbed as commission.

        In any circumstances, all bookies will want to balance the bets equally, so they can maximize their profits without taking any risks. For example, if both of us were to bet on ODD together, the bookie is at risk of losing $1.64($0.83 x 2) for earning $2, if you multiply this by millions of punters, that will be a huge sum of money. That’s why bookies adjust their odds to spread the bets more evenly.

        #Simple analysis and logic
        Okay that’s when there is no match fixing. But what if the bookie deliberately try to unbalance the bets, knowing the team is hot favorite yet still offers very attractive odds without adjusting when they start accepting bets.

        For e.g.
        Man Utd VS Wigan,
        1.90 0.5 1.90 Smile
        Man Utd only gives 0.5ball to Wigan at home, how?? all the uncles or newbies will most probably showhand + legs on this match. Thinking getting free money from bookie. But of course, the bookie will not make it so obvious, usually is downgrade by 2 plates from strength plate.

        Strength plate(实力盘): the handicap which is based solely on the strength/form of the team with no external factors(no match fixing)

        tasty plate(笋盘)/ fake plate(假盘): the fake handicap opened by the bookie, either to attract you bet on something or to deter you. most likely match fixing

        handicap plates:
        0.0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
        move left = down plate, 1.00->0.50 = down 2 plates
        move right = up plate, 0.0->0.25 = up 1 plate

        This analytical method is very simple.
        #1. open a plate according to your past experience for the match (do not look at the plate opened by the bookie, if will affect your judgement)
        #2. compare it to the plate opened by the bookie
        difference by 1 plate, take it as a misjudgement by yourself
        difference by 2 plates, something “fishy” Smile Smile Smile
        difference by 3 plates, very rare, super kangtao if you get one.

      • #1574

          Let me quote a most recent example of fake plate opened by the bookie. I will only reveal the teams and the actual handicap later.

          World cup qualifying match
          Team A vs Team B,

          Team A last 5:WLWLL
          Team B last 5:WWWLW
          Past records: Team B won all 4 matches against Team A, but all were played at Team B home or neutral ground.
          Popularity and world ranking: Team B is much better than Team A.

        • #1655

            tats good

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